Monday 6th sept . I had a feeling of dread as the rain came and the going changed leaving the lays a little exposed. On this occasion we got away with it. The lays making 3 points on the day. The equinox lays all drifted outside of the 5.0 parameter . i hope thats not a result of the increasing number of users of the site. We’ll be watching carefully to see if the trend continues in which case we will have to take some action. The backs were also struggling with the going but were helped out with a 12.5 priced winnerand a 1.5 point profit on the day. Profits for the v3 backs now stand at over 90 points in around just 40 days.
18 AUGUST 2010 morning update
Good Morning
Its been a while…....... again
Time for an update.
Things are going along nicely. The backs interest me. Version 3 is now 52+ points in profit in 20 days and that included a 10 point straight loss on its first day and last Saturdays disaster of 17 straight losers. That was a tough day for followers of the backs but has since recouped all those losses.
Odds for the Parlays backs range widely. The backs version 2 had a betfair sp range of 8+ and did hit 100+ profit at one time but finally ended 50+ over its 3 months lifespan before we decided it had had its day.
Version 3 was privately trialled in july and reached over 100 points profit so it hasn’t been around that long.
Equinox the lay product has a maximum Betfair sp parameter of 5.0. Started off very well in april performed poorly in May levelled out in June was tweaked for July and made 18 points profit and has continued to perform in August .My feeling is that its performance is helped by the very competitive flat racing that you get during July/August and it may well dip during the autumn.
Solstice on the other hand started performing like a train but July and August have been slow.
Im being asked why the selections cant go online earlier. We need to take account of the non runners and the Betfair market which have a significant bearing on the final selections. This is less true of the backs which we may put up earlier. Normally the non runners and the markets are reviewed around midday. That will have to be moved back when racing starts earlier during the autumn and winter months
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07 OCTOBER 2009 EVENING update
Good evening
Its been a while….
Our flagship product Equinox is going along nicely now 50 points plus in profit. It did get messy today however with more than one selection from 1 race showing up . Although Ive checked back and noticed where its happened before hasn’t necessarily been a problem weve decided to put some heavy blocks in to stop it happening too frequently.
Having said the Equinox is our flagship the Solstice selections are also pulling round. Total profit for the month has already reached 20 points but if your following them you do need to keep to the Betfair sp parameters.
Which brings me on to the backs. The handicap backs have been a disappointment. These are flat racing handicap selections only and with the turf season approaching its finale it may give us time to reflect. We are currently working on a Jumps product which hopefully will go live as soon as the flat season has finished.
The Parlays select outsiders is going well though. Another winner today making a profit so far of 25 points. We also had two seconds at 19’s!
19 August 2009 EVENING update
3rd day of the Equinox selections and already a couple of the selections have hit and gone passed the 10.0 barrier despite being forecast at least half that on the tissues. I certainly don’t intend going back to recording highish Betfair sps again with the Equinox systems.
For anyone interested and some of these have not been recorded on the site so you’ll have to take my word for this. The record so far
Betfair sp wins/sels profit/loss
2.0-5.0 11/13 6.90
5.01-8.0 9/9 9
8.01-10 3/3 3
10.01+ 5/6 -7
16 JULY EVENING update
System 4a is head and shoulders above all others. Since Jan 2009 it shows a profit of 123 points and a strike rate of 91% (45 points since the beginning of June) but you must follow the guides!!
The short priced lays have not fared so well with their being few selections with all aged handicaps where the profit had been. The information used to form the systems has been erratic lately to say the least which leaves me no option other than to suspend the system
The backs are again in profit hitting the 100 point profit mark today (albeit for the second time)
31May EVENING update
The big success for the month was the short priced lay system which showed a very healthy profit of 29 points. Contrast that with some of the others systems. I hold my head in shame with the performance of the Racing index selections which showed a loss of 30 points.
Recent results have thrown up some new statistics on the 2A 6A & 8 systems where the Betfair sps are 6.0 or less
Systems 2a AW FLAT on all race types including maidens and 3yo where the Betfair sp is 6.0 or less. 82/99 +30 points profit.
System 2A FLAT (TURF) sp 6.0 or less 36/ 40 +23 Points profit
System 2A JUMPS (Loss)
System 6A sp6.0 or less 71/83 +31 points
System 8A sp 6.0 or less 49/57 +22 points
Maybe the maidens and the 3yo handicaps have been underestimated. Certainly at short prices anyhow. Ill put these in the guides and update as and when a selection qualifies
22 May EVENING update
The gap between the success rates of the flat and jump lay selections appears to be growing. The 2A Jumps lay system shows a profit in the month of 35 points (since January 2009 +90 points) whereas the flat combined is just about breaking even. The irony is that the short(er) priced lays are showing a strike rate of 94% in the month and a profit of 26 points.
I see little point in continuing the test lays in their current format although we will give the flat another two weeks to se if they can be turned round.
Ideally, and it will cut the work load we would keep the jumps as they are - obviously continue the short priced lays and take the best of the flat lays probably 4a.
The Back 7 system shows a very healthy 90 point profit and that will continue too
04 May 9 EVENING update
Could not let today go without a mention for the Back 7.
5 winners from 5 selections. +60 points profit +72 when Betfair sp 3.01-6.0.
The lay 2a system for the flat is at last in profit (+8 for the month) and even the short priced lays are now in the black
05 april 2009 EVENING update
Slow start to the month. I recently introduced a short priced lay system to the portfolio. Probably it should read short(er) priced lays as they aren’t pouring out tons of odds on shots though there are 1or 2. After the first few days losses I made an adjustment to Saturdays selections and 8 straight losers (just 1 placed) so far. Im hoping for around 80% strike rate with these
31 March 2009 EVENING update
Im pleased to see the back of March our toughest month ever. Its fair to say that some of the systems did well to get back in profit after Black Monday.
The handicap chase selections took a battering in the month and even the reliable LAY 8 system couldn’t do much about it with a 13 point loss with the chasers but still ended up 10 points in profit overall.
Contrary to popular belief the aw flat selections did better than the jumps this month in systems 4a 6a and 8 and Im hoping the turf flat will continue the profits.
27 March 2009 afternoon update
Ive been thinking long and hard about the extra selections that are part of the midday updates.
Basically these selections fall outside of the Racing Posts tissue price of under 10/1 but drop into the 13.0 Betfair maximum price and have usually been backed in the morning for them to have qualified. Probably this idea is flawed because laying horses that have been heavily backed is dangerous.
Today we had Cape of Storms as an midday extra selection but it fell into the Back LEDA system as it wasn’t a LAY8 selection. There wasn’t any particularly strong money for this but yesterdays extra selection & winner “The Graig” did have some money.
We also had Radar Love as a selection which although was 16/1 in the tissue price was within the 13.0 on Betfair early in the morning. Again this won.
We have seen from the Back Leda system that with certain criteria that these trainer system selections are tricky lays. The Leda system now is over 130 points in profit since September and 80 points in profit since January 1st on Betfair sps over 8.0.
Anyway the upshot of all this wittering is that Im suspending the extra selections as lays and going to include them in a backing system just to see what I can find from them. These will be shown on the site as Back updates and an analysis will be shown from tomorrow.
Email Updates will only be issued as and when there are significant non runners
24 March 2009 evening update
Time for some words
Its been a tough month. I often get emails asking which system do I recommend to follow. I always give LAY 8 as one of the best if not THE best. It does have the best strike rate and virtually the best profit figures. It does have the fewest selections that’s because it has the most filters attached. Even in the poorest month so far its still showing a profit even after todays hit.
I hope the guides attached to the todays lays page is helpful which details out the strike rates and profit per system.
Onto the backs. The Leda system is showing some interesting stats. When Betfair sp over 8.0 16 winners from 128 selections +64 points profit. Not a high strike rate but excellent profit
11 March 2009 evening update
The fight to claw back those lost points from Black Monday is underway. Lay 8 is only 1 point away from break even for the month. Some of the others have some way to go but at least they are on the move. Which leaves LAY 3 with the best profit so far in March +12 points.
One thing Ive noticed is the prices of the selections have been shorter since Monday. Probably due to the fact theres been quite a dip in the site hits since then. Understandable I guess!
9 March 2009 evening update
I have to apologise to anyone who followed todays disaster. I myself lost a sizeable chunk and gave up for the day after the 3rd winner had gone in!
I hate making excuses but it was dreadful racing today and it seemed the only horses to jump well were the selections
March has been our worst month by far but will carry on for the rest of the month in the hope of improvement but today was simply awful!.
With the flat turf season around the corner to make room I need to dispose of some systems and after a good start the jockey systems will have to go. Ill revisit them another time
Im also going to watch for significant non runners during the day and issue an update by email and on the site before the first race
07 March 2009 MORNING update
Parlays system analysis 1
Since January its been largely unprofitable to lay systems selections under betfair sp of 4.6
LAY 1: -9 loss
LAY 2A FLAT AW: +3 profit (surprisingly!)
LAY 2A JUMPS : -3 loss
LAY 3: -1 loss
LAY 4A: level
LAY 6A : +5 profit
LAY 8 -1 loss
RACING INDEX level
JOCKEY AW FLAT +1 profit
JOCKEY JUMPS -3 loss
Parlays system analysis 2:-
LAY 1 & LAY 3 (the forgotten systems) are beginning to show a comeback
1st January 2009 – 6th March 2009
LAY 1 odds 6.01-13.0 +33 points profit and 33/33 (100%)
LAY 3 odds 6.01-13.0 +30 points profit and 42/43 (98%)
Parlays system analysis 3:-
It could be tempting to take a risk by laying in the 13.01-`16.0 range
1st January 2009 – 6th March 2009:-
LAY 1 : +4 profit
LAY 2A FLAT AW: level
LAY 2A JUMPS : +11 profit
LAY 3 +8 profit
LAY 4A +16 profit (+65 when sp 16.01+)
LAY 6A +18 profit
LAY 8 +25 profit
RACING INDEX +29 profit
JOCKEY AW FLAT +3 profit
JOCKEY JUMPS -22 loss
Here endeth todays lesson
01 March 2009 evening update
The BACK LEDA system which I though had long gone seems to have revived itself. Although only a modest +8 point profit since the start of the year there are some interesting stats within the system. Maidens are +12 but if you add the over 13.0 betfair sps it increases to +51 points profit.
The BACK 7 continues to make steady profits. +39 profit since January 1st rising to +58 profit using Betfair sps 3.0-6.0. (avoiding maidens and 3yo handicaps)
A steady start for the lays in March although there was a 25.0 winner amongst the AW Flat (where else?) but well outside of our maximum price
23 February 2009 evening update
A word about the backs 7
All aged handicaps +54 points profit
20 February 2009 evening update
Right im back with a decent signal again. Boy was that painful. One or two things to talk about.
First while I was away (Wells Next The Sea) if anyone knows it Ive been trying out a new system using similar criteria to the trainer systems 2A 4A etc but using jockeys instead. Looks good so far though a word of caution. The jumps shows a +19 point profit in 6 days though there were a couple of winners outside the 13.0 max. Anyway they will be made public from tomorrow on the lays page and the stats up to Thursday are on the analysis page.
The other thing is that 3 year old handicaps and maiden races have now been taken out of the lays analysis from the trainer systems. They patently do not work on these systems so they have been omitted from the start of this year. They will be shown separately in the Lay analysis.
Since the jumps have come back from the bad weather the profit is piling on again on the 2As
12 February 2009 evening update
3 out of the last 4 Racing Index selections have now won! Very poor this week . I’ll be glad when the aw disappears. I think this has only happened once before. Currently LAY 2A doesnt seem to be able to generate any selections not helped by the abandonment of meeting after meeting
08 February 2009 evening update
A difficult time for the lays with the weather playing havoc with the meetings and non runners galore. LAY 4A is currently showing the best stats so far in the month with 100% record 14/14. Today was one of those days with just 1 lay for the majority of the systems and a horrible priced winner at 9.2 and the first winner for the Racing index system in 30 odd.
A word for the BACK 7 system.
Betfair sps 2.0-6.0 :-
35 winners from 113 selections and a profit of +26
Take out 3yo handicaps 0/10 -10 loss
And take out handicap chase 0/9 -9 loss
Leaves 35 winners from 94 & +45 points profit
02 February 2009 evening update
No racing today and im wondering whether we’ll get any turf action for the rest of the week. Anyway its given me a chance to take a look at those forecast prices and Betfair sps which ive been bleeting over recently.
Many thanks to Adam who’s sent me a spreadsheet of the recent selections with details of the swings in the prices which Ive been able to analyse further.
Adam sent me details of the LAY 6A system which Ive broken down into jumps and flat and it does make interesting reading but not really anything conclusive.
The last 27 flat lay 6a forecast prices (racing post) averaged 7.13 with the Betfair sps averaging out at 12.87 that’s an increase on the forecast of around 80%
In the same period there were more jump selections (45) on the LAY 6A with an average forecast price of 7.60 and a Betfair sp of 14.68 an increase on the forecast of 93%.
Both of those increases are high even taking into account the higher Betfair sps over industry sps. So does that mean the Racing Post forecast prices are hopelessly incorrect or is there a weight of money being laid on our selections?
Well for one thing the sample isn’t big enough but my first thoughts are that on many occasions the RP forecast is way out and im constantly surprised by some of the odds being quoted. However there must be some affect given the numbers that come onto the site and from the emails we get a lot of you follow the jumps selections more than the flat due to the high profits generated by the LAY 2A JUMPS and they are showing a higher increase with the forecast price.
Some other stats:
Just 17% of the LAY 6A JUMPS Betfair sps ended up LOWER than the forecast price! And amazingly just 2 of the 27 LAY 6A FLAT selections were LOWER than the forecast and one of those was just 1% over. Now that is interesting!
29th January 2009 evening update
In the lay analysis you will see that Ive added a Racing Index Proofing analysis. These selections will be the LAY 8’s plus the best of the other systems and will be used to proof to Racing Index in an effort to get us back up the tables. LAY 8 will remain as LAY 8.
Those 3yo handicap selections did some damage today at least we had highlighted that they were not forming part of our Racing Index selections for the time being
28th January 2009 evening update
4 out of 5 winners for the Racing Index (RI) and a 14 point profit on the backs. BACK 7 finding 3 of the winners all from all aged handicaps now with a 36 point profit since we started the system in January. Though handicap chases are 0 from 11 and 3yo handicaps just as bad 0 from 10.
LAY 2A JUMPS still going strong and now 95 from 98 at Betfair sps over 4.5 and +74 point profit in that sp range for the month so far.
LAY 6A JUMPS has the better strike rate within the normal price paramteters 92% and +35 points
25th January 2009 evening update
Quite a lot to talk about
LAY 2A FLAT – separating the low grade 6 all age handicaps may start to pay off. The higher grades now show +15 against a break even position for the low graded handicaps although as yet there doesn’t seem to be a significant difference in the wins/selections numbers
LAY 2A JUMPS piling on the profit again +29 points even with plenty of abandoned meetings.
LAY 6A JUMPS not far behind +22 but does include this loss on the 3yo handicaps which each system seems to have
BACK SYSTEM 7 is doing well. We use the Betfair sp range 2.0-13.0 and so far +20 points since the start (4/1/2009) led mainly by a +27 point profit on the all aged handicaps. But even with the backs the 3yo handicaps are an issue with -7 point loss. But even so is this the system Ive been craving for for years?
FORECAST PRICES. I have a real concern about these. Of the five LAY 2A jumps selections today 4 of them ended up virtually double if not more the forecast price quoted in the Racing Post. With the number of hits the site now gets im beginning to wonder how much the price is being affected. I may have to take some action if this continues and may for a few days monitor the situation without the selections being made public! On the other hand the Racing Post may just be getting it horribly wrong.
Watch this space
20th January 2009 evening update
Progress on the lays is a little slow but progress nonetheless. The out of form trainer systems are all in profit. Flat 2a after that poor Sept/Oct 2008 period is showing profits in the past 3 months even better if 3yo handicaps are ignored. LAY 6A now +15 followed closely by 2A JUMPS +14.
BACK system 7 is now +9 with the all aged handicaps +17.
Despite my good intentions I could not continue the midday prices so that was short lived!
11th January 2009 morning update
Mixed!
Trying to give LAY 1 & LAY 3 every chance but hits yesterday make me think Im wasting my time.
LAY 6A & LAY 4A lead the way with +11 & +9 profit respectively but we’ll be glad when the cold snap is over so we can get some consistency back in the stats.
You may have noticed that we’ve introduced Betfair midday prices to the Lays just to see how much the prices drift or come in. Not to many conclusions drawn so far except that the two selections that have been backed from the midday price have both won. On Friday in 2A Flat Ten Down came from 7.0 to 3.98 to win and yesterday 2A Jumps Pinewood Legend went from 12.5 to 7.8 to win. Well watch this though I cant guarantee the midday prices will be done everyday
We’ve introduced a new back system number 7 and although not bringing up trees is at least showing a 4 point profit
7th January 2009 evening update
Some early statsfor the new year
Hopefully jump action should be back in action if not at the weekend then early next week – so far the systems are having to rely on the all weather to show what they can do
Lay 2a flat shows a small profit of +5 this month but using the betfair sps selections under 8.01 gives a 21/24 strike rate and a profit of +11.
Lay 4a has just had one “winner” against it for a profit of +6 but LAY 6A is by far the best +11 and 95%
You should have noticed that we include selections with betfair sps up to 13.0 in the breakdowns though we are also showing the analysis of those with prices above this.
The experiment for a backing system goes on. Few selections so far this year which prompted us to try out a new system 7. This already looks destined for the bin!
4th January 2009 evening update
So many mixed messages from LAY 2A Flat. One minute it looks like the holy grail of a backing system only for it to bring you back to earth reminding you it is a lay system after all!
No jumps meetings for a while with the freezing weather set to continue for a few days yet.
Today was a bit of a non event for LAY 8. The selection was forecast at 8/1 (there was no way it was ever going to be 20/1 let alone 8’s!!!) and ended up 25/1 and 48 on Betfair.
Ill give it 6 and a half out of 10 so far this year with no lay system showing a loss so far
31st December 2008 December evening update
So that’s it for another year (our 3rd – seems a lifetime). The last quarter of the year has been our most successful period to date as we introduced a new system and a new way of thinking.
LAY 2A jumps is the most successful system. Raw data with no filters analysing trainers current form and overall strike rates gave a profit of 137 points at betfair sps (level stakes) in a short period 7/9/2008-31/12/2008 and a strike rate of 90%. It will be interesting to see if the same s/r will be maintained during the summer months.
A word of warning though. The cold snap will force the abandonment of many jumps fixtures and may play havoc with the way trainers form is calculated
LAY 8 had the best strike rate 93% and formed the basis of our selections proofed to Racing Index. These selections have raised our position in their league tables. For the past 6 months we are 2nd, 3 months also 2nd and for the past month we are 6th.
The backs tend to get ignored and are not producing runaway profits but there are some little gems. BACK 10 has a 41% strike rate and a 23 point profit since October 08 and the Leda system has a 108 point profit but most of that was achieved in the first couple of months and the last 2 months have seen the profits dive.
For 2009 you will see some small changes. The analysis pages will look slightly different and as Ive said before the main change being that Betfair sps will be solely used to show profit and loss.
We also have a new front page which ill be adding too as we go through the year
Happy New Year to you all
23rd December 2008 evening update
We approach the 3rd anniversary of the Parlays site. Im hoping that 2009 will be our most successful ever. It will be interesting to see what a full year of the LAY 2A 4A 6A and 8 systems will bring.
As I said in the last blog there will be some changes. On top of the Betfair sp changes the analysis pages will have more race types listed . AW results will be shown separately as will the lower grade races on the flat.
On to the current month
LAY 1 shows a 14 point loss due solely to 3 wins at 16/1 12/1 & 8/1
LAY 2A jumps +33 profit in the month and going strong. What bappens in the summer months??
LAY 3 shot to pieces
LAY 6A + 20
LAY 8 +21
All at betfair sps
There is a chance that Boxing day selections will be up tomorrow depending on what information has been made available.
Merry Christmas to everyone.
14th Decemebr 2008 evening update
We will be making some changes starting 1st January 2009 the main one being that we will be reporting all the results at Betfair sp’s enabling you to see for yourself which systems work best at (say) laying at a maximum 6.0. You can see from the analysis that we already report the Betfair sps as a total for each system but they will in future be analysed by Betfair sp range and by race type.
We will also be streamlining the backs systems.
Meanwhile we are halfway through December and the LAY1 & LAY 3 appear to be shot to pieces. Never been a month like it for these systems.
LAY 2A jumps continues to do well +16 so far in the month +97 since September this year and LAY 8 the Racing Index proofed system has had a reasonable month despite a couple of recent hits
30th november 2008 evening update
A disappointing end to the month particularly for the LAY 8’s for which November was a roller coaster. 19 points down after the first week then turned it around to go 14 points up at Betfair prices then ending the month around 7 points down (im still awaiting todays betfair sps).
On the other hand all the other systems were in good profit for the month. At Betfair sps
LAY 1 +15 points profit (7 had sps over 10/1)
LAY 2A FLAT +22 profit
LAY 2A JUMPS +36 profit
LAY 3 +13 profit (4 had sps over 10/1)
LAY 4A +32 profit (not betfair prices)
LAY 6 +17 profit
The two back systems that we proof to Racing Index for the month:-
BACK 4 + 2 points profit
BACK 10 +5 points profit
25th november 2008 evening update
Just one loss from the last 40 odd selections with the LAY 8 selections has turned a poor start for the month into a 15 point profit at betfair prices and we are well on course for our 20 point target profit for the month.
LAY 2a jumps only took a hit today but is still the most profitable system but still we use LAY 8 selections only for our Racing Index proofing. Our good run of laying Henrietta Knight horses came to an end yesterday . It had to end soon
Ive given up understanding the flat LAY 2A’s ‘and the relationship with the back Leda system the latter now has a loss of over 20 points for the month yet the profit to date is over 100 points. Don’t understand it and never have!
Its encouraging to see the hits for the site are averaging 400-500 per day with many coming from overseas
19th november 2008 evening update
You need a fair amount of luck in this game to make a profit. Today the LAY 8 sp parameters managed to avoid Boris the Blade which won at 11/1 just outside the 10/1 threshold. My guess is that laying all the LAY 8’s at 11/1 or more would still yield a small profit but im not that intrigued enough to prove it one way or the other.
Another 8 points profit today for the LAY 2A JUMPS ONLY taking it to 86 points at Betfair sps and LAY 8 is back in the black admittedly just 2 points but 31 losers now from the last 32 after that poor opening to the month
11th november 2008 evening update
Hopefully we’ve turned the corner with LAY 8 after a poor start to the month. But its LAY 2A JUMPS only with a healthy 78 points profit so far at Betfair prices.
Best of the backs and there aint much to crow about so far this month is BACK 4 with a 6 point profit - that’s 22 points since 1st October
3rd november 2008 evening update
A strong day for the lays with every selection losing. Strongest was the LAY 2A jumps with 5 from 5. So far this system has only had 1 placed from the 10 selections.
With the flat turf season about to end I guess the large profits found with the Leda system are likely to level off so it will be interesting to see how it does just on the AW over the winter
3rd november 2008 afternoon update
Ive spent most of the morning with my head in the Leda back system where ive also split the flat and jump analysis. The whole system has been re-run again and im now happy the figures are correct. The jumps shows a loss of 14 points but the flat shows a massive 126 points at Betfair sp’s.
It may also be worth giving serious consideration to LAY 2A jumps Which has a healthy 89% strike rate and a 51 point profit at Betfair sps
Look out for the betfair sps which will be included in the results pages from today on winners only
2nd November 2008 evening update
A relief to get back up and running with the LAY 8 system today.
You may want to have a look at the LAY 2A analysis which I have split into Flat and Jump racing. Quite a difference. For the flat a 68 point loss at Betfair odds whereas the jumps show a 51 point profit at Betfair odds.
1st November 2008 evening update
LAY 8 just cant get out of first gear at the moment. Non runners, abandoned meeting & too big prices plus of course another winner!
BACK 1A was the saving grace with another 4 point profit on the day
“When LAY2A selections not LAY 8 selections (max sp 10/1):-“ now called the LEDA system. It was the only moon I could find anywhere near a betting term.
Now its been analysed by race type theres a massive difference between the flat and jump stats. At sps +87 points profit ( flat ) as opposed to -21 points loss jumps. Probably due to the jumps being far less competive as a higher % of races are cleaned up by the bigger stables.
I also found another 22 selections with 5 winners which hadnt been included in the original figures previously analysed in the blog
1st November 2008 morning update
A disappointing end to the month for the LAY 8 with 2 “winners” from the last 3 bets. There was this underlying feeling that LAY 8 was over achieving particularly as it had been riding its luck recently. But I think a target of 20 points per month at Betfair sp odds is not insurmountable for the system. Still, a profit of around 45 Betfair points was an excellent return.
BACK 10 will be revamped and like LAY 8 became a system itself in October. Franked form is at the forefront of the system. We will wipe pre October analysis so teh analysis is not mixed.
A very interesting month ahead. I will watch BACK 1A carefully and this oddity-
“When LAY2A selections not LAY 8 selections (max sp 10/1):-“
Which keeps on delivering winners. Expect the full rundown of its results on the BACK analysis sometime today together with a new system name for it. Those of you who were around when we first started will know we used Jupiter moons for system names. I think we will revert back to it for this one
31st October 2008 afternoon update
When LAY2A selections not LAY 8 selections (max sp 10/1):-
Oct 30th lose x 4 W9/2 W9/2 (+5 SP) (+5.87 BETFAIR SPS)
52 winners from 239 (21%)
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT + 42.18
Betfair SP profit +87.61
30th October 2008 afternoon update
When LAY2A selections not LAY 8 selections (max sp 10/1):-
Oct 29th lose x 1 (-1)
Oct 28th lose x 7 W10/1 W4/1 (+7 SP) (+12.63)
Oct 27th lose x 3 (-3)
Oct 26th lose x 6 (-6)
50 winners from 233 (21%)
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT + 37.18
Betfair SP profit +81.74
29th October 2008 morning update
Ive had several emails concerning LAY 8. This was not a system but an area where we showed selections we were proofing to Racing Index which up to September 2008 were selections we regarded as being the best lays of the day taken from all our systems.
Things got confusing when we changed the way we were analysing stables/trainers out of form. From September 2008 LAY 8 became a system itself when we began to add filters to LAY 2A and proofed the results to Racing Index and added the results to the LAY 8 analysis which meant LAY 8 became a mixture of the best lays of the day and the filtered LAY 2A selections.
We have decided to now show the LAY 8 analysis solely as the filtered LAY 2 selections and the analysis has been back dated to 7/9/2008. All the previous LAY 8 analysis i.e “best lays of the day” have been discarded
Apologies for the confusion . Anyone needing further clarification please email me
28thOctober 2008 evening update
Quite a bit happening with the systems at the moment not least with BACK 1A which after a quiet couple of days 4 winners from 6 selections at 8/1 6/1 10/3 and 6/4 which at Betfair sp odds is approaching 30 points profit in total for the system
And…
When LAY2A selections not LAY 8 selections (max sp 10/1):-
Just about to think this had gone as far as it could when it produced a 10/1 winner & 4/1 winner today. Ill update the stats tomorrow when I get the Betfair sps
I see we are top in the Racing Index lays for the month and well placed still in the 6 month and 3 month tables
Speaking of Racing Index i’ve just found out that they had been inadvertently including selections over 10/1 sp for BACK 1A. My fault as I hadn’t been putting in the parameters in decimal odds. Now corrected.
26thOctober 2008 morning update
When LAY2A selections not LAY 8 selections (max sp 10/1):-
Oct 25th Lose x 2 (-2)
Oct 24th lose x 2 W7/2 W2/1 (+3.5 SP) (4.9 BETFAIR)
Oct 23rd lose x2 (-3)
Oct 22nd lose x 3 (-3)
Oct 21st lose x 5 W7/1 (+2 SP) (+3.2 BETFAIR)
48 winners from 214 (22%)
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT + 40.18
Betfair SP profit +79.11
25thOctober 2008 morning update
We have decided to recalculate the BACK 1A system. Only selections with sps between 1/1 and 10/1 inclusive are included. The stats have been changed to show this and have made a considerable difference to the analysis.
22nd October 2008 evening update
I could scream…. BACK 1A improved yesterday and today found 6 winners from 12
7/2 7/2 3/1 11/4 9/4 5/4 all of which under the 4/1 parameter
21st October 2008 morning update update
A day to forget yesterday. Plenty of warning signs before LAY 8 took a hit at 15/2 (at Betfair sps it was an uncomfortable 11.5)
BACK 1A has been a disappointment with just an 11% strike rate although there have been some big prices. Will keep this going for a while
When LAY2A selections not LAY 8 selections (max sp 10/1):-
Oct 20th lose x 3 (-3)
Oct 19th lose x 7 (-7)
45 winners from 197 (23%)
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT + 42.68
Estimated Betfair profit +79.01
19th October 2008 morning update update
When LAY2A selections not LAY 8 selections (max sp 10/1):-
Oct 18th lose x 3 W15/2 (+4.5)
Oct 17th lose x 5 w10/3 (-1.7)
45 winners from 187 (24%)
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT + 52.68
Estimated Betfair profit +89.01
17th October 2008 afternoon update update
We are now including Betfair sp’s on all of the backing systems and most of the lays back dated to the 1/10/2008. Though LAY 6 Ive decided to include Betfair sp’s from the start date of the system
When LAY2A selections not LAY 8 selections (max sp 10/1)
Oct 16th lose x 4 w11/4 (-1.25)
Oct 15th lose x 9 W13/8 W9/2 (-3)
43 winners from 177 (26%)
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT + 49.88
Estimated Betfair profit +84.03
14th October 2008 evening update update
When LAY2A selections not LAY 8 selections (max sp 10/1)
OCT 14th lose x 3 W6/1 (+3)
OCT 13th Lose x 4 W 7/1 (+3)
OCT 12th lose x 4 (-4)
Oct 11th lose x 6 (-6)
Oct 10th lose x 2 (-2)
40 winners from 161 (26%)
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT + 54.13
Estimated Betfair profit +87.63
Re the lays I see we’ve hit top spot for the month on the Racing Index for the first time in living memory. We also are in the top 10 for the 6 month and 3 month period. Not bad for a free service
14th October 2008 morning update
The back systems other than to a certain extent Back 10 appear to be stagnating. So we are testing a new test system called BACK 1A. Main criteria is recent run in same grade or above and a minimum of 4/1 sp (there are a couple of other strong variables)
We hope to achieve a strike rate of 25% or more
10th October 2008 morning update
The LAY 8 run came to an end. We had that sinking feeling when the forecast favourite was declared a non runner and then we sunk further as the race unfolded before our eyes with everything bar our selection jumping poorly. Still it was a good run for the lays and hopefully we can carry on with another.
The fears surrounding David Pipes runners was unfounded as all three lost and ran like drains. I like Luke Harvey on ATR but to say before the first race that the stables horses were running well was rubbish. Luke you should have done your homework and look how they had been running recently!
Meanwhile……………………….
When LAY2A selections not LAY 8 selections (max sp 10/1)
Oct 9 lose x 2 W6/1 (+4)
38 winners from 146 (26%)
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT + 60.13
Estimated Betfair profit +92.63
9th October 2008 morning update
When LAY2A selections not LAY 8 selections
Oct 8 lose x 4 W13/2 W15/8 (+4.38)
37 winners from 143 (26%)
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT + 56.13
Estimated Betfair profit +87.88
LAY 2A selections NOT either LAY 4A OR LAY 6A selections max sp 10/1
27 winners from 100 selections
Level stake profit +34 points
Estimated Betfair profit +55 points
Theres a big test for the Lay 8 selections today. 3 selections from the stable of David Pipe whos horses aren’t pulling up trees at the moment but will come into form very soon
7th October 2008 evening update
The winners keep coming when the LAY 2A selections are not a LAY 8 selection (max sp 10/1)
Heres the update:-
Oct 7 lose x3 W11/2 W11/2 W9/2 W4/1 (+16.5)
Oct 6 lose x 2 (-2)
Oct 5 lose x 4 W9/4 W6/4 (-0.25)
35 winners from 137 qualifiers (25%)
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT +51.75
Estimated BETFAIR profit +82.25
LAY 2A selections NOT either LAY 4A OR LAY 6A selections max sp 10/1
Now stands at 27 winners from 99 selections (27%)
Level stake profit +35 points
Estimated Betfair profit +56 points
Obviously we have no idea whether this will continue but we are considering putting these selections on the Racing Index site as backs
5th October 2008 update
Heres an update on the LAY 2A “ backing” systems
LAY 2A selections not a LAY 8 selection max sp 10/1
Oct 4 lose x 3 W8/1 W5/1 (+10)
Oct 3 W10/3 (+3.3)
Oct 2 lose x 10 (-10)
Oct 1 lose x 4 W13/2 W10/3 W4/1 (+9.8)
Sept 30 lose x 7 W15/2 W7/2 (+4)
Sept 29 lose x 2 (-2)
Sept 28 lose x 5 (-5)
Sept 27 lose x 1 W11/8 (+0.38)
Sept 26 lose x 3 (-3)
Sept 25 lose x 5 (-5)
Sept 24 lose x 4 (-4)
Sept 23 lose x 2 W7/2 (+1.5)
Now stands at 29 from 122 selections
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT +37.5
Estimated BETFAIR profit +64.5points
Make of this what you will . In this period the system broke even at normal sps but an estimated Betfair profit of 9.5 points profit would have been made at Betfair sps .
LAY 2A selections NOT either LAY 4A OR LAY 6A selections max sp 10/1
Now stands at 24 winners from 88 selections
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT +27.5
ESTIMATED Betfair profit +46.5
1st October 2008 update
At the end of the first week of September we decided to revamp the way we were establishing whether a stable was out of form. This affected LAY systems 2 ,4 & 6 and to a lesser extent LAY 8.
We replaced all 3 systems with 2a 4a and 6a. We have been pleased to show over 90% strike rates for LAY 4A and 6A . We do not include any selection returned with an sp over 10/1.
We calculate using Betfair sps that 4A would have shown 27 points profit to level stakes
6A using the same formula would have shown 23 points profit to level stakes.
That’s an encouraging start to the systems.
2A however started to show an odd tenedency to show up winners as opposed to losers and youll see from the updates below it started to get quite interesting when you started to filter selections not shown by the LAY 4A,6A AND 8 systems. Then just when you thought the madness had stopped its started to show winners again with another at the time of writing going in at 15/2. I’ll continue to monitor and see if its worth pursuing further.
The back and lay monthly checks are now updated
22nd SEPTEMBER 2008 update
Just a quick update while LAY 2A still intrigues me.
Todays LAY 2A selections that are not LAY 8:-
Sept 22nd lose x3 W7/2(+0.5)
AND todays LAY 2A when NOT 4a or 6a selsections now stands at 15 winners from 44 and sp profit of 25.5
Meanwhile LAY 8 continues to perform well
21st SEPTEMBER 2008 update
LAY 2A has got me intrigued.
Ive run a further report listing all 2a’s that are not LAY 8 selections using it as a backing system:-
Must have sp 10/1 or less
Sept 21st lose x5 W7/1 W9/4 W2/1 W11/2 (+11.25)
Sept 20th lose x4 (-4)
Sept 19th lose x1 (-1)
Sept 18th lose x2 W10/1 (+8)
Sept 17th lose x2 W7/2 (+1.5)
Sept 16th lose x3 W9/1 W3/1 W5/6 (+10)
Sept 15th lose x2 W11/2 (+3.5)
Sept 14th lose x2 W11/2 W4/6 W11/4 W3/1 (+9.75)
Sept 13th lose x15 W10/1 W10/3 W9/1 (+7.3)
Sept 12th lose x5 (-5)
Sept 11th lose x4 (-4)
Sept 10th none
Sept 9th lose (-1)
Sept 8th W1/1 lose W11/10 (+1.1)
Total profit as a backing system +37 points
19 won from 66 selections
Possible reasons it could be a profitable backing system
1. trainers predominately unfashionable and therefore sp is likely to reflect this by being good value
2. because the sp is 10/1 or less selections are not unfancied
3. LAY 8 is a good filter system
We will see how they perform for the rest of the week
21st SEPTEMBER 2008 evening
LAY 2A continues to find the winners. Doesn’t look too promising as a lay system but if it continues at the rate its going its going to be some backing system. Another 4 “winners” found today.
The LAY 2A’s not included as 4a’s or 6a’s have levelled off now & stand at 14 winners from 41 selections and an sp profit of around 24 points used as a Backing system
At least the LAY 8’s (the racing index proofed lays) are performing well
16th SEPTEMBER 2008 evening
Something that maybe worth watching are the LAY 2A system selections. These are unfiltered where we consider the stable is either out of form or not firing on all cylinders. They then get filtered into LAY 4A and/or LAY 6A. What we have noticed in the first few days is that where a LAY 2A is not included as a LAY 4A or a LAY 6A some interesting stats have developed. There have been 11 winners from 29 selections (SP 10/1 or less only) giving a sp level profit of 25 points. Today there were 2 winners 9/1 & 5/6 from 4 selections. We will keep watching to see if this develops though there isn’t any good reason other than the stable are overdue a winner which is weak to say the least.
9th SEPTEMBER 2008 afternoon
Most of the systems have now had a full year of testing. I now intend to cull some of the back systems as I see no point in continuing the loss makers most of which appear on the flat.
Back 1 – the jump handicaps will continue to be monitored but all the flat systems will go.
Back 2 – will disappear altogether
Back 3 – only flat handicaps will be kept and all the Jumps
Back 4 – out go 3yo handicaps, maidens and all the jumps bar novice hurdles and novice chase
Back 5 - just conditions and classified stakes remain plus all the jumps
Back 6 - a bit of a mixture remain. Handicap chase remain despite a poor record. I feel it deserves another season.
Back 9a – just the jumpers remain
Back 9b – will disappear
Back 10 – will remain
The lays will remain except LAY 2 which will be replaced by LAY 2A which now includes all selections with stables WE consider out of form rather than using the criteria previously supplied. This means that LAY 4 AND LAY 6 are replaced by LAY 4A AND LAY 6A and thus new statistics are shown as from 7th September 2008
2ND AUGUST 2008 afternoon
A good end to the month with the Back 10 system. The last 10 days saw a profit of 13 points and a strike rate of 56%. In that period the Racing Index tables saw us in 2nd place.
The rest is as usual a mixed bag with plenty of “seconditis”. Overall Back 1 and Back 3 were the only systems to make a level stake profit
Cumulatively the best systems are in the handicap chase category but don’t expect too many during the summer months although Handicap Hurdles in Back 6 with a 30 point level stake profit . there are some other reasonable profits within Back 6 but June and July were poor months probably due to the competition of the flat.
The lays probably had the worst month. Lay 8 had its first losing sp month. There were some excuses with non runners and changes in going but overall it didn’t work out well at all.
LAY 4 did the best with a 15 point sp profit but most of that came from all aged handicaps which up to July had fairly horrific stats.
LAY 1 was a major disappointment after building up big sp profits in May and June. Getting clobbered with a 14/1 winner in a novice handicap chase didn’t help and achieved just a 82% strike rate.
LAY 3 is consistent but could only scrape a 1 point sp profit in the month and had even a worse s/r of 79%
Overall we were glad to say goodbye to July .
1st JUNE 2008 afternoon
LAY 8 started the month well hit a poor run in the middle but recovered just enough for a small sp profit. LAY 1 & LAY 3 were going great guns until the final day where they were both hit with a 15/2 winner but both finished with record sp profits of 53 and 52 points respectively.
LAY 2 struggled particularly over the jumps where only 6 losers were found from 12 selections. LAY 4 would have had a respectable sp profit but the all aged flat handicaps continues to find winners and made a loss of 18 points on the month. LAY 5 still nowhere near the heights of last September but 3yo handicaps is running at 97% and handicap hurdles at 90%. LAY 6 has the same issue as lay 4 in finding winners with all aged flat handicaps though has very good profits within the system on other types of races.
BACK 10 where we pick out the best of the system backs made a profit of 6 points and our Racing Index position remains healthy in the month. In fact only 1 of our last 20 selections has not been in the first 3 so Im hoping for a good month in June.
3rd MAY 2008 afternoon
It was a good month for LAY 8 where the system finally hit the 90%+ strike rate for the month as we took a new approach by ignoring minimum sps and instead gave brief reasons for laying the selection. This so far has proved successful and long may it continue.
Lay 1 came back to some form with 89% with its best month since January though there were mixed messages from some of the other systems. LAY 6 although a modest 84% s/r still managed +24 pts as flat maidens did well with 94% (16/17). Good to see after the maiden system had struggled during Feb & March on the AW after doing so well previous to that with 55/59. The jockey ranking system LAY 7A did the best of the rest with 91%.
The backs had a superb start to the month and we were showing up well for some time in the Racing Index tables but fell away from mid month onwards. Im still waiting to see how a full year of these systems progress and expect them to do much better in the summer months
1st April 2008 afternoon
March brought the usual frustrations for the backs with oh so many placed 2nd. Back 6 found 61 winners but suffered with 65 selections ending runners up yet only 12 finished 3rd from a total of 203 selections.
The most profitable system so far is in Back 6 where handicap hurdles show a profit of 28 points. There are other pockets of profitability within Back 6. These are led by Classified Stakes (flat) +16 and Novice Handicap Chases +16
Back 9A has a profit of +42 on all jump handicaps excluding amateurs/cj’s and sellers from 60 selections whilst Back 5 shows a profit of +32 on all chase races interesting considering Back 5 shows a loss of 173 points!
It certainly wasn’t a great month for the backs.
Best system for the Lays in terms of both strike rate (90%) and sp profitability (+34) was LAY 4. It was a good comeback after a loss of 10 points in February. Lay 8 where we select the best lay selections is the only system not to show a loss on any month though still a relatively modest strike rate of 84% but +114 points on sp profit.
There was one major blip for LAY 3 and LAY 6 where they a managed to find a 12/1
winner between them and but for that they too would have shown a decent sp profit.
1st March 2008 morning
Well that was February and some interesting developments among the back systems where BACK 6 finished with a 42% strike rate and a 21 point profit for the month at around 10% . Most of the successful back systems tend to revolve around the jumps but weve still yet to have a full year over the flat as we started many of the systems towards the end of the flat system and I want to see how BACK 2 does over the height of the summer.
In LAY 6 there appears to be a back system developing among the all aged handicaps which now shows a loss of 43 points. Ill be keeping a close eye on this though there appears to be no reason to believe it should be anything than a laying system that just doesn’t work.
The most successful lay system in strike rate terms was the jockey ranking system with a s/r of 91%. In terms of the most points profit at sp was LAY 3 and within lay 3 handicap chasers have a strike rate of 92%
Onto March where we have the start of the turf flat and the Cheltenham festival where the systems have yet to be tested against either
13th February 2008 evening
RE BACK SYSTEM 6 - Showing a loss of just 15 points at sp from over 1200 selections is a feat in itself. If you assume that 5% on the average winning sp of 5/2 can be obtained from Betfair prices after commission then the 15 point loss actually turns into nearly a 100 point profit by backing every selection . I prefer though to ignore the big loss making race types - all aged flat handicaps (H) and flat maidens (M) also any seller or claiming race which up to today would show a level stake profit at sp of 90 points. There are winners virtually every day with this system. Followers of the Racing Index tipster statistics will have noticed that our backs (back system 10) are now showing some decent profits and we are now sitting in 7th place for the monthly backs.
05th February 2008 evening
After yesterdays success with the LAY 8 Racing Index selections avoiding a winner it was good to see we again managed a repeat performance. This time Bentley Brook was filtered out leaving 5 successful lays for the day. This should continue to boost our table standing in the monthly lay performance selection lists
04th February 2008 evening
We’ve decided to change the way we make our selections for the Racing Index (LAY 8). From today we are taking into account the sp by referring to the lay analysis statistics. For example Lay system 2 shows a very good strike rate on flat maidens at 7/2 or more (41/44) but just an average rate at 10/3 or less (18/28) so we decided to filter the selection at the former odds with RI. The selection Basalt won but at 6/4 therefore has not been included in our RI selections. We shall see how this works.
I mentioned weeks ago about the strike rate on lays 11/1 or more. It now stand at 213/216. One was a recent winner at 25/1 but many of the selection are in the 11/1 – 14/1 range and the strike rate is currently way above what you would expect so we are now doing away with the 10/1 maximum price in LAY system 8.
23rd January 2008 evening
An interesting day not least because the backs came back to form. Well at least system 6 did. If you take out flat allaged handicaps , flat maidens and all sellers and claiming races from both codes the system shows a +66 point profit. Its easily the best profit line from the backs.
The 9/1 winner that popped up was also a LAY 1 selection but the novice handicap chase stats within lay 1 were already showing a loss. LAY 1 still has a 92% strike rate in the month . LAY 7A is stuttering but LAY 3 is one of the most successful laying systems and would be well up this month if it hadn’t been for a surprise 25/1 winner earlier in the month.
The Parlays select haven’t worked and we are looking at something different which involves a system based on live prices but more on that later
9th January 2008 evening
A mixed day for the lays. LAY 1 managed to find two losers but they were left out of the Racing Index system lays as the system had a poor record with its H3 selections. LAY 3 managed to find a 25/1 winner luckily it was well outside of the LAY 10 sp parameter but has been included in the results of LAY 3. Funny system this. Many race types show losses yet its still 42 points up mainly due to All aged flat handicaps +32 and handicap chases +27. LAY 6 had the best record for the day 100% with 6 successes
5th January 2008 evening
I always find the Henrietta Knights stable difficult to assess. Unless its Best Mate they either seem to win or get beaten out of sight. So with 6 unplaced horses leading up to today it was safe to assume the stable was out of form. But it came back to form with a bang and ate up the Parlays Select lay at 11/2 and also won with Quarry Town another system lay. So it was somewhat messy amongst the Lay system selections today
4th January 2007 evening
Its been a poor start to the year for the BACKS particularly 2 & 4 which haven’t found a winner between them from 22 selections.
Meanwhile the Parlays select could do better 13/16. But all 3 winners have come from long distance chase races. I am expecting this to improve.
But the Lays on the whole with one or two hiccups are doing well
30th December 2007 evening
For some of the LAY systems its been a difficult month. Starting from LAY 1 sp profit for the month +7 LAY 2 +5 then -18 +7 +18 +25 +48 +10. So it’s the highest numbered lay systems that have proved the most profitable and interestingly they are the “youngest”
Just 3 of the Back systems are showing a year to date profit by backing every selection. But its interesting that the jump backs are doing well particularly in handicaps where the races are less competitive. Im going to ditch Back systems 7 and 8 at the start of the year.
The Parlays site is now 2 days over 2 years old and still going strong. 115,000 hits this year . Thank you for visiting and happy new year to you all
28th December 2007 evening
LAY 7A is piling up the profit points. Another 7 from 7 today following the 8/8 from the day before last. In fact the last winner for LAY 7A was on the 15th December. Today it was looking like a 100% record for all the system lays but Summerofsixtynine spoilt the run as it won at 3/1 at wolverhampton
26th December 2007 evening
Seasons Greetings to everyone. Apologies for the late loading of todays selections but we are back to normal tomorrow.
Highlights of the day included LAY 1 8 from 8 although a couple of the selections had longer sps than expected and LAY 7a also with 8 from 8. Within Back 5 there is a nice little run developing with the handicap chases now 18 points profit from 14 selections –quite a difference from the flat selections and probably need to avoid the chasers in LAY 5 as a result
21st December 2007 evening
Since the last blog we have introduced our own LAY selections which are not system based. So far 2 selections both unplaced.
Its unlikely that we will have any selections online in time for the start of the boxing day cards. In the interest of keeping the systems data up to date the selections will be online at some point during the day
17th December 2007 evening
Tricky period for the lays especially LAY 3 & 4. Two big areas of losses on LAY 3. Novice handicap chases with a loss of 11 points to date though there has only been six selections so far and a loss of 14 points on Maiden Hurdles but we’ve highlighted the letter difficulties in the past whereas LAY 4 have serious loss makers 2YO Handicaps and All Aged Flat Handicaps combined show a 36 point loss the other being the loss on Maiden Hurdles.
We are currently testing a whole new range of LAY systems based on course and/or distance. When these go public they will have their own section.Hopefully the first of these will be online in the next few days
15th December 2007 evening
Winners galore and not necessarily within the backing systems. Poor to say the least for the LAYS where everything seemed to go wrong. One of the poorest days weve had since August.
Meanwhile the backs found some winners at last. System 6 had a 8/1. If you exclude all aged flat handicaps and maidens the system has a profit of around 40 points
13th December 2007 evening
Clean sweep for the Lays . We ‘re finally seeing some selections from LAY 1for December and overall its approaching a 90% strike rate. LAY 7a has done particularly well this month with 27 from 28 followed by LAY 5 with 18/20. Our Racing Index league table position is improving all the time.
Not so great for the backs. After a good start to the month the systems are beginning to struggle though still finding winners the sp’s are short
10th December 2007 evening
Its been a difficult few days for the LAYS though there wasn’t much to get the teeth into today. Another maiden hurdle winner at 8/1 continues the theory that they are races to avoid for these systems. We took the plunge yesterday and decided to include LAY 5 amongst the Racing index selections and sure enough as soon as we did the selection won! At least todays lost.
Plenty of placed selections today among the backs. There are some decent strike rates in BACK 6 which looks as though it’s a system that needs a good staking plan
6th December 2007 evening
It was good to see the lays get back on track today. Lay 8 finding 4 losers at decent short prices. LAY 5 always amazes me. 12/12 so far this month and derived from a supposedly successful Back system and I still haven’t the confidence to put it in with the Racing Index proofs. That system BACK 5 now has a 134 point loss.
The backs again found plenty of placed selections. BACK 2 had 4 seconds and a third. Three of those were carrying top weight in heavy conditions .
Meanwhile the November Back and Lay analysis is now online
5th December 2007 evening
Poorest day for some day as most of the Lays systems took a hit. Lay 3 made the biggest loss with 3 winners found. The systems really do seem to struggle with Maiden hurdles and again today with a winner at 11/2.
I place a maximum sp of 10/1 on the lays for Racing Index purposes. Im beginning to think this is not a great move as so far there have been 158 losers from 160 selections with sps at 11/1 or more These are not 33/1 shots either they tend to be around the 12-14/1 mark tho occasionally the systems thro up a silly one!
The backs were only marginally better Back 6 found 6 winners from 11 races and this month has a 54% strike rate from 35 selections
4th December 2007 evening
We wasn’t to bothered with the win from Haybrook in some of the Lay systems . 2YO Novice races hadn’t shown any profitable areas in the past so the selection was not included in LAY 8. All the selections from Lay 8 lost (7/7) and continued the progress in the Racing Index table.
The backs really needed to have one of the placed horses turned into a winner. Just a small loss on the day for BACK 10 whereas the flagship BACK 2 just about made a small profit albeit a minute one
3rd December 2007 evening
Another day of winners galore for the Back systems with Back 2 again leading from the front with 4 winners from 5 selections taking the level stakes profit to over 70 points.
The lays also had a successful day and the more data being generated daily shows up the profitable areas. These profit areas are used for LAY 8 which is then used to proof to Racing Index. So far so good as Parlays position in their table of tipsters is improving considerably. Initially we were proofing virtually all the lay selections without realising some race types were not going to be profitable.
The same can be said of the Backs where we suspended proofing to RI until results improved. Whether the Backs can maintain the strike rate remains to be seen.
2nd December 2007 evening
A cracking day for the backs with Devils River being the centrepiece winning at 13/2 for Back 2. This system is showing a 45% strike rate and a profit of 28 points in handicap hurdles.
Back 6 has made a bright start with 8 wins from 13 and a profit of +7
Meanwhile the lays have started well though two novice chase “wins” were highlighted under the pointers. Only Lay 2 and Lay 6 have not started with 100% strike rate
30th November 2007 evening
November ended strongly and overall it was a good month for the backs. Back 2 returned to form after a shaky start to the month and a poor October ending +14 points up +57 points since 3rd August .
Handicap chases and hurdles combined in Back 9A produced a very impressive +31 points in the month and +42 points in Back 10.
Lay 3 was the best laying system with a sp profit of +26 which included two winners at 8/1 and 10/1. The system is plus 75 points since the start (august 7th)
Lay 1 achieved a 90% strike rate in the month with an overall sp profit of 79 points
26th November 2007 evening
A rare poor day for Lay 1 though once Faithful Ruler had been pulled out of the 1230 the selection was vulnerable particularly as FR was a strong Back system 2 candidate.
Meanwhile Back 2 continues its turnaround with a 4/1 winner Herecomestanley. Profit now up to 59 points excluding the sellers
friday 23rd November
not a great day for the backs. Just a couple of short priced winners Lay 1 had a maximum 6/6 and a 91% strike rate for the month
22nd November 2007 evening
Slowly coming to terms with last night footballs result…or maybe not.
Just been checking the cumulative profit on Back 2 and realise that its been understated. After todays 5/1 winner it the profit now stands at +49 points.
Meanwhile the lays did reasonably well. Lay 4 found 5 losers from 5 and Lay 1 found 3 from 3. The one winner was also the 5/1 Back 2
20th November 2007 evening
Some winners again on the Backs albeit at short prices. Pride of place went to system 4 with a 10/11 and 9/4 double. That’s now a 29 point profit excluding 3yo handicaps. This is a system that anticipates a trainer returning to form. That may be too much for trainers in 3yo handicaps where the big stables tend to dominate. Just a theory though.
19th November 2007 evening
System Back 2 appears to have a second wind. Winners at 7/2 and 11/2 from 4 selections brought back memories of the giddy heights of august and September. Sp profit on this system now stands at +36. The same two winners were found in Back 4 which also has a healthy profit of +16.
Meanwhile there were a few non runners in the Lays. Lay 2 is struggling abit and found a 10/3 winner today whereas all the other lays lost
18th November 2007 evening
Again a race where 3 lays were selected resulted in a winner being found .All the other lays lost.
Back system 2 found a winner at 8/1 which was also the lay 6 “winner”. Back 2 seems to have improved lately and excluding sellers has a 34 point profit.
Ive “spruced” up the back and lay analysis so the flat and jumps have separate sections
17th November 2007 evening
Back system 9a found the winner of the Paddy Power at 13/2. Thats now +37 points in handicaps for 9a.
Just the one winner for the lays
16th November 2007 evening
A difficult day at best for the lays. Lay 1 found a 9/2 winner whilst both Lay 2 selections won. Dens Gift shouldn’t have won but for a ridiculous ride on the odds on fav . A 4 runner race in the 1455 at Newcastle saw 3 of the runners selected by different systems an inevitably a winner was found. So a day to forget.
The back though had an interesting day. Another winner for the handicaps in 9A at 7/2. that’s 6 from 8 in handicap hurdles and +21 points profit.
15th November 2007 evening
100% success rate on the lays today with the biggest price 6/1. Looking at the stats for the over 10/1’s there has been 124 selections since we started and just 2 winners found.
A couple of points profit were each made with Back Systems 2 and 4
14th November 2007 evening
An unusual day in that there was such a imbalance within the lay selections. No Lay 1 or 2’s only one Lay 3 but 8 Lay 4’s and 12 Lay 6’s. On top of that there were 3 different system lay selections in the opener at Lingfield and 4 different in the last at Kempton. Such an odd pattern brought a mixed bag of results.
The backs had its usual hit and miss day though there were no selections in the 9a handicap genre
13th November 2007 evening
After such a poor start to the month it’s a relief to see the majority of the Lay systems back in the black. Lay 1 is the one system that was tweaked at the end of august when it was showing a loss of 8 points . Since then the strike rate by month has been 92% 94% and so far this month 90%
Back system 9a found a 6/1 winner today and in handicaps excluding apprentice /amateur races/ sellers now stands at 29 points profit
12thNovember 2007 evening
The favourite blew the start and the jockey of the other fancied runner managed to fall off soon after so it was no surprise to see Ten Pole Tudor spoil the party at in the 1440 at Wolverhampton.
The rest of the lays lost. Lay 1 appears to select some wildly varying prices - today 3 losers, a 7/2 and then 14/1 and 25/1. Interesting it has a 100% record with prices over 10/1 (55 from 55). Kiss of death?
11th November 2007 evening
Lay selections were a bit sparse not for the first time on a Sunday but at least they all lost. The deficit on Lay 3 is beginning to recede albeit slowly the 8/1 and 10/1 winners found at the start of the month really did take their toll.
9th November 2007 evening
Im writing this before evening racing. Highlights from this afternoon include 3/3 from Back system 4 which gives a +11 point profit at sp overall and around 10% profit on selections.
The lay systems were a bit hit and miss. Lay 5 should be avoided and is likely to be the first dropped . Lay 6 is beginning to accumulate some points whilst Lay 1 has wiped the earlier November deficits and Lay 2 other than the maiden hurdle deficit impresses.
Tomorrows selections will be late. Should be online around 11am
8th November 2007 evening
Another good day on the lays with no winners found. Lay system 2 is the most profitable this month. This system has the lowest average “winning” sp. Overall shows +11 profit which takes into account a loss of -18 points on maiden hurdles.
Back System 9a found two winners bringing its profit on handicap races to 21 points
7th November 2007 evening
Certainly the best day of the month so far particularly for the lays with just the one small blip a 13/8 winner in a conditions race for system 3.
Lay system 1 has a 90% strike rate with all aged flat handicaps and 89% with handicap chases. Handicap chasers appear to have a high strike rate in lay system 3 - 94% , 95% in lay system 4 and 92% in lay system 6.
Back system 2 had a good day 2 winners from 3 and a 3.5 point profit
6th November 2007 evening
Those of you who visited the site during its infancy in 2005-6 would have seen a daily write up of the systems’ performances. I’ve decided to resurrect it though it certainly won’t be daily but I’ll attempt to put some views on the site as and when I can.
The test back systems results have been very poor in October and the early part of November which has been disappointing after such an encouraging start in August/Sept. Put it down to end of season blues or whatever but there’s no getting away from the fact that the majority of the systems haven’t worked in this period. There are pockets of profitability but so far the holy grail doesn’t appear to be apparent at this stage. Test back system 2 which I had called the flagship in my September review sank much of the built up profit mainly due to the collapse in the all aged flat handicap genre. There is hope that the Jumps will do better once the season gets into full flow. There was at least a decent Flat winner today at 4/1.
What has become apparent is that backing maiden selections on the flat has been a disaster. Ive only noticed today just how poor they have performed in system 9a – just 4 wins in 24. And then I looked again…. Just one unplaced in 24 selections!!
System 6 I like but again provided it steers clear of Maidens and all aged Flat Handicaps. These two categories have a total loss of 60 points between them leaving a profit of 22 points between the other categories.
The lay systems had up to this month been going along quite nicely so it was a bit of a shock when the results turned against the systems at the end of October start of November. Lay System 5 (derived from back system 5) started to win instead of lose and so did a few of the systems that had been so solid up to then. Hopefully it’s a blip. Todays results were better though Lay system 4 again found a winner all aged flat handicaps but this system appear very strong in the maiden category with 27 losers from 28.
We are currently looking at a lay system involving jump handicap chase and hurdles where the selections have a marked preference for travelling a certain way round a course which becomes more prevalent as the further it travels - particularly over 23 furlongs+
More from us later……
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