AUGUST/SEPTEMBER REVIEW
There are three concepts behind the back and lay test systems
• Horses in form
• Trainers out of form
• Stable news
Most of the systems encompass all 3 but with varied slices of each concept. What has become apparent in the two months is that these systems work well in certain types of races with the main success stories coming in handicap races.
The test backs:-
System 1 is the one system that disappointedly has shown little variance. It is a handicap only system that has shown reasonable strike rates for 2yo and 3yo races but this has been negated by the lack of decent SPs. There’s little else to say about it except more races are needed to test particularly over the jumps before any conclusion can be reached.
System 2 is the current flagship of all the back systems. Again exclusively handicaps only has consistently shown profits in the two months. This system is always going to find winners the question is can it sustain its current rate of profitability. It should work well over the winter on the AW but its still to be fully tested over the jumps. Handicap hurdles is a particular concern with all these systems and system 2 is no exception and a current rate of 1 from 7 doesn’t augur well. But with a profit of 55 points to level stakes and a strike rate of 35% its been an excellent start.
System 3 is based on stable news and has proved successful in handicaps +15 points on the flat so far. There are small losses on all other race types but more testing needed.
System 4 takes account of trainer form -not in form trainers but anticipating when trainers are about to hit form. This was always a risky system I guess I didn’t really expect this to work that well and so I haven’t been disappointed. A loss in the two months of 3 points isn’t disastrous and I take heart that in flat handicaps a small profit has been generated.
System 5 has been a disaster in terms of searching for profitability with a loss of 74 points literally outdoing the lay systems. Quite why it’s such a loss maker isn’t totally clear other than I can only think that the system selects horses that have reached their peak with no further improvement likely. You will have noticed that at the start of September not being one to miss such a opportunity I decided to use some of the selections in a laying system (lay system 5 currently with a 92% strike rate).
System 6 uses the Daily Mirror SF symbol. If you ignore maiden races then the system shows a healthy 20 point profit though September was not as successful as August. The system generates by far the most selections nearly 400 in the two months.
System 7 selects horses ridden by top jockeys. A tad disappointing but all aged flat handicaps are showing a good profit of 12 points
System 8 looks at seller and claiming races and was running at around 90% before I began proofing! Nowhere near enough selections in the two months but may come into its own during the winter
System 9a and 9b both use stable news. Seem to take one step forward and another back. Just about keeping their heads afloat but again handicaps seem to do better.
The Test Lays
System 1 a big improvement on august’s results +24 points (91%) though some of the selections were returning SP’s of over 10/1. The back systems struggle to find handicap hurdle winners but lay system 1 has managed to find 3 from 10 selections.
System 2 unfortunately the last day of the month found a 9/1 winner in a novice hurdle previous to that things had been moving along nicely. Maiden hurdles had returned a huge loss of 19 points in august. But overall SP’s at 7/1 or less the strike rate was good 37 from 42 in the two months.
System 3 a loss of 18 points in maiden races puts a dent into the profitability of the system. Excluding maidens the profit moves up to 23 points at SP.
System 4 was a bit of a minefield yet maiden races which appear to be the key in both lay and back systems show 11/11.
System 5 is derived from back system 5 (see above). Currently 92% strike rate though the 7/2-5/1 sp range appears to be the weak link 8/11
System 6 has a good strike rate 90% though a 9/1 winner late in the month dampens the profitability. 11/12 at sp’s 7/1 or less
System 7 – don’t laugh! The idea is to find a lay system with lots of selections and then filter by race type. I use a jockey ranking process and then using the lowest ranking as the lay. Quite what has happened in the 3/4 days its been running has been interesting to say the least. 32 point loss already (helped by a 20/1 winner) if you were laying plus another couple of big winners on the final day. This system has shot my Racing Index league position to pieces. No idea where this is going needless to say I cant wait for tomorrow.
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